Nepal security assessment

The world is a mess, Nepal is also. However, in summary: it is always safe to trek and travel in Nepal, there may be strikes and inconveniences—there may not—BUT you are never a target. You are safe from political violence, even Americans, come have an adventure!

The general situation

The 14 April 2008 Constituent Assembly election went well and gave a balanced result, giving the Maoists enough power that they won't be tempted to go back to the jungle but not a majority. In June 2008 the country was declared a republic, ie the king stripped of power, and in August 2008 a president to replace the king was elected, another step in the long process of possibly starting to transform the country. Lets see if the new government can actually do something about improving Nepal, or whether the Maoists will push for a more outdated and stupid path. Nepal desperately needs good governance. The real problems are the long list of historical injustices and the inherent unfairness of the system and the political class - can they tackle these? Radical reform is needed.

There are frustrations everywhere, as you can imagine. Currently there are 2 day long queues for fuel and helpful strikes about fuel and transport prices. There are protests by students about university lecturer positions, families of the disappeared (ie brutally murdered) people who still have no information despite both sides agreeing to release information within 60 days, years ago, the list is endless. Expect occasional disturbances and strikes but normally these don't have too much effect on trekking plans.

Trekking safety

Come trekking; so far most indications are that the general situation will improve, and anyway there were never any safety issues in the main regions previously. Do plan to avoid peak trekking areas during peak seasons as they will be packed...

Background

Since the arrival of democracy in 1991 successive governments were utterly feudal in behavior, grossly corrupt, shortsighted and narrow-minded and by neglecting basic development allowed a Maoist insurgency to start in 1996. As the stakes were raised to the point of a gun against the country's head, not one of the main political leaders could get their fingers out of the honey pot, proving time and time again they were utterly, hopelessly incapable of solving the country's multitude of problems. The ordinary Nepali people suffered immensely.

Finally, 1 Feb 2005, the King took over with the intention of reforming the country and holding elections within 3 years. He took a badly mistaken ultra-hard line approach rather than bringing everyone together, eventually being the main obstacle to a political solution. With a second peoples power movement (Jana Andolan II) the old politicians were reinstalled and remade the laws to suit themselves, and give enough power to themselves to stop the King meddling. The country is in a situation worse than 1990, and the same mistakes are being repeated, all very depressing. There might be change sometime in the next 10 years?

Trekking in India is safe.
Tibet-China has zero security concerns.

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